Preseason Rankings
High Point
Big South
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#269
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#246
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 10.6% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 38.4% 61.3% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 71.1% 52.9%
Conference Champion 7.4% 12.6% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 2.8% 8.5%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.9%
First Round5.0% 9.6% 3.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 21.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.70.0 - 1.2
Quad 20.3 - 2.10.3 - 3.3
Quad 32.1 - 6.22.5 - 9.4
Quad 49.8 - 6.312.2 - 15.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 164   @ William & Mary L 72-77 21%    
  Nov 10, 2018 97   Wofford L 64-74 26%    
  Nov 16, 2018 134   South Dakota L 66-74 25%    
  Nov 17, 2018 214   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-69 43%    
  Nov 19, 2018 212   Air Force L 66-68 41%    
  Nov 24, 2018 290   @ East Carolina W 70-68 46%    
  Nov 27, 2018 265   @ The Citadel W 82-81 41%    
  Dec 01, 2018 273   Eastern Kentucky W 70-69 63%    
  Dec 04, 2018 120   @ Valparaiso L 64-73 16%    
  Dec 15, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 70-67 70%    
  Dec 22, 2018 130   Richmond L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 29, 2018 40   @ Ohio St. L 60-76 5%    
  Jan 05, 2019 232   @ Charleston Southern L 66-67 35%    
  Jan 10, 2019 319   Presbyterian W 67-63 72%    
  Jan 12, 2019 194   @ Winthrop L 71-75 29%    
  Jan 16, 2019 334   South Carolina Upstate W 77-71 78%    
  Jan 24, 2019 333   @ Longwood W 72-66 60%    
  Jan 26, 2019 294   UNC Asheville W 69-67 67%    
  Jan 30, 2019 218   @ Gardner-Webb L 67-69 33%    
  Feb 02, 2019 240   Hampton L 72-73 57%    
  Feb 07, 2019 254   Campbell L 69-70 59%    
  Feb 09, 2019 149   @ Radford L 61-67 21%    
  Feb 13, 2019 333   Longwood W 72-66 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 240   @ Hampton L 72-73 36%    
  Feb 21, 2019 254   @ Campbell L 69-70 40%    
  Feb 23, 2019 218   Gardner-Webb L 67-69 53%    
  Feb 27, 2019 149   Radford L 61-67 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 294   @ UNC Asheville W 69-67 46%    
Projected Record 12.2 - 15.8 8.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.3 1.2 0.2 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.9 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 1.1 4.7 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.2 1.0 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.5 1.6 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.3 1.5 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.9 8.2 10.3 12.8 12.8 12.5 10.5 8.6 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 87.4% 1.6    1.3 0.3
13-3 64.5% 2.3    1.5 0.8 0.1
12-4 32.6% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-5 7.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 78.2% 78.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.6% 57.7% 57.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.8% 37.3% 37.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1
13-3 3.6% 30.4% 30.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.5
12-4 6.2% 19.1% 19.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 5.0
11-5 8.6% 10.8% 10.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 7.7
10-6 10.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 9.8
9-7 12.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 12.0
8-8 12.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.6
7-9 12.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.6
6-10 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.2
5-11 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.2
4-12 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-13 3.3% 3.3
2-14 1.8% 1.8
1-15 0.8% 0.8
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 3.3 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%